A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OIL PRICES CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FROM FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to determine the impact of oil prices in the Fragile-Five countries (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India, and Turkey) on current account deficit and growth. In this study, the method of panel data analysis was used and the period of 1980-2014 was examined. The Levin, Lin, & Chu panel; Im, Pesaran, and Shin W-stat; ADF-Fisher Chi-square; and PP-Fisher Chi-square unit root tests were used to determine the stability of data before panel data analysis. The results of the study can be expressed as follows. i) There was a statistically meaningful relationship in oil prices with both GDP and the current account deficit. While there was a positive correlation between oil prices and GDP, there was a negative relationship between oil prices and current account deficit. ii) No long-term relationship was found between GDP and oil prices; there was a long-term relationship between current account deficit and oil prices as determined by the cointegration tests. iii) Causality test also showed the presence of a bidirectional relationship between GDP and oil prices.  Causality between oil prices and the current account deficit was one-way from the variable of oil price to the variable of current account deficit.