MEASURING THE INFLUENCE OF THE J-CURVE EFFECT ON TRADE IN ROMANIAN FOREST PRODUCTS

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic effect of the Romanian exchange rate  indices on bilateral trade of Romanian forest products namely fibreboard, particle   board and pulp for paper. Special attention is given to investigate the J-curve hypothesis: whether the trade  balance  for   Romanian   forest   products benefits   from a decline in the  value  of  Romanian Leu (RON). We adopted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach   to cointegration to estimate the annual bilateral trade data of Romanian forest products  from  1991 to  2013 with various  countries  in the  world. We found  no evidence  of the J-curve  phenomenon for  the  trade in Romanian forest products. The  long-run   analysis   showed the exchange rate  to  be insignificant  in  influencing   the  trade   balance  of  Romanian forest products. This  implies  that  there  are  no changes  in the  trade   balance  for fibreboard, particle board and pulp for paper trade, regardless of whether the Romanian   exchange rate depreciates or appreciates. However, income variables were found to be important factors in determining Romanian trade, only in pulp for paper products.