Dynamic modeling of household energy vulnerability: empirical evidence from Moldova’s compensation system
Abstract
Abstract
This study examines the dynamics of household energy vulnerability in the Republic of Moldova, a country characterized by near-total dependence on imported energy and high exposure to external price shocks. Building on the national framework for vulnerability classification (Law No. 241/2022 and Government Decision No. 816/2024), the analysis integrates administrative, household, and elasticity data to assess the effectiveness of monetary compensations introduced during the 2022-2025 heating seasons. Using a panel data-based simulation anchored in empirical energy-burden ratios (R), the model reconstructs household-level heterogeneity and evaluates how compensation policies affect energy poverty rates over time. Results confirm that while energy vulnerability remains widespread, particularly among high and very high categories, targeted compensations significantly alleviate gas-related burdens, whereas electricity poverty persists more rigidly.
