BEYOND BOOM AND BUST: A ROADMAP FOR NIGERIA’S TRANSITION TO A STEADY STATE ECONOMY

Abstract

Nigeria’s economic paradox—resource wealth amid underdevelopment—calls for a paradigm shift. This paper applies the steady-state economy perspective, integrating empirical evidence (1990–2024), comparative lessons, and insights from post-growth and Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), we confirm that GDP, savings, investment, and population are cointegrated, though adjustment toward equilibrium remains slow. Findings reveal structural weaknesses: low domestic savings, underinvestment, rapid population growth, and heavy oil dependence. Informality, gender gaps, and regional inequalities further constrain inclusive growth. Ecological stress from resource depletion and climate vulnerability remains under-addressed. Comparative lessons from Japan, Norway, Costa Rica, Rwanda, and Ethiopia emphasize fiscal discipline, human capital, diversification, and institutional credibility. The study proposes a phased roadmap—(1) short-term stabilization and social protection; (2) medium-term diversification and institutional reform; (3) long-term ecological transition and innovation. Nigeria’s steady-state journey is as political and social as it is economic, requiring credible institutions, inclusive policies, and ecological foresight.